Maxwell Smart, the bumbling secret agent of the long-running and well-loved television series, Get Smart, often repeated the phrase a couple times in a row when caught in a dire or embarrassing situation. To start, he would spin an outrageous grandiose lie which no one would think credible, then go on to "Would you believe... ?" ending in a slightly less ridiculous but still unbelievable scenario, and then a final, "Would you believe... ?" consisting of a completely silly bit of fiction which clearly acknowledged he knew no lie was going to work.
Captured and surrounded by 10 KAOS agents and informed by their leader, Siegfried, Smart's evil nemesis, that he was about to die, Max would tell them to lay down their weapons, because just outside the building were 50 government agents with machine guns and army tanks ready to attack and rescue him. Siegfried would look at Max, raise an eyebrow and say, "I don't believe you." Then Max would look chagrined and say, "Would you believe five security guards with stun guns?" to which Siegfried would respond, "I don't think so." Then Max would say, "Would you believe one Boy Scout with a peashooter?" The gag was a frequent joke in the series and never failed to get a laugh.
Not telling the truth and trying to fabricate a believable story often ends badly, even if the purpose is to avoid telling a painful or a damaging truth. The fact is, if the lie is exposed, trust is eroded. Even if the lie is intended to eventually do some good, and even if it does eventually do some good, there will remain a question as to whether one can trust that person or agency again in the future. If the lie is told because one simply doesn't have an answer and doesn't want to look stupid, when the truth comes out he will look like a bumbler or someone with an ego problem. Giving half-truths or bits of information with no supporting facts will also raise red flags as to the veracity of the information given, often leading to massive speculation about what is being hidden. Finally, making promises one does not know can be kept is a form of lying as well and leads to future distrust of anything that person or agency says from that point on.
At one point, the public was told Holly was dragged from her house, and later it was stated she was walked away from her house. One of these statements is not true; which one? Then, to further erode one's trust in what law enforcement is telling the citizens or that they are competent, it is stated that "Holly was in fear of her life as she was led away." How would anyone know this if they did not see her terrified face and tears running down her cheeks? Someone is making stuff up and it is not inspiring confidence that the case is being handled properly.
The other theory is that Osama has been dead for almost a decade of kidney failure and Al Qaeda knew it and kept quiet to keep the threat of him out there and the United States knew it and kept quiet for the same reason. Then, when a bin Laden (or some Osama look-alike) was killed in the raid, the administration took the opportunity to spin it as Osama has been finally found and taken care of. I find this a more plausible scenario. However, if Osama was alive and living anywhere, Pakistan was an excellent choice considering their history--at least that of the ISI, the Pakistani intelligence agency --which has in the past been accused of harboring other terrorists and gangsters such as Dawood Ibrahim (pictured left), a mob kingpin from India connected to Osama and numerous terrorist attacks.