Circumstantial Evidence: Proof or Persecution

by Pat Brown

Today we are supposed to be getting the lowdown on the FBI's case against Dr. Bruce Ivins and I hope like heck they really have some solid evidence linking Ivins to the anthrax attacks. If it turns out they have nothing but an assortment of "interesting facts that might warrant further investigation," then claiming Ivins is the culprit is downright appalling.

Now anyone who knows me or has heard me give commentary on news shows may point out that I usually speak quite bluntly and say that someone looks mighty darn guilty, that I have little question that they committed a particular crime. I then list the various pieces of circumstantial evidence.

So why am I so upset when I see headlines about Ivins declaring "Homicidal Anthrax Maniac Plans Murder of Coworkers" or "Mad Scientist Obsessed with Sorority Near Anthrax Mailbox" or "Crazed Anthrax Killer Gets Porn at Secret Mailbox"? Because many of these facts are unsubstantiated, meaningless, taken out of context, and woven together as "proof" of unquestionable guilt that the FBI has found the anthrax culprit and the case is solved.

Sometimes circumstantial evidence is indeed strong enough to have little doubt of an individual's guilt. At other times, it is only good enough to encourage more investigation. With respect to fairness and a person's reputation, we ought not to confuse or manipulate the two different levels of quality of such evidence.

A couple of recent cases illustrate this point. The first one made major news last week when a police SWAT team raided the home of Cheye Calvo in a "no-knock" drug raid, blasting through the door, shooting down the family dogs, and terrorizing the residents of the home. The story has spread like wildfire across the Internet and the police action has received much condemnation.

Here are the basic facts of what went down: Drug dogs hit on a package containing 32 pounds of marijuana at a package facility in Arizona. The parcel was addressed to one Trinity Tomsic of Berwyn Heights, Maryland. Law enforcement there set up a sting operation, allowing the package to continue on its way to be delivered by one of their own to the home of Cheye Calvo.

Calvo was working at the time of the delivery and his mother-in-law, who lived with Calvo and his wife Trinity, told the delivery man to leave the package on the porch. When Calvo arrived home from work, he noted the package and carried into the house, dropped it unopened onto a table and went to change his clothes.

Moments later, all hell broke loose. The SWAT team blasted into the house, shot Calvo's beloved black Labradors, and for the next three hours Calvo and his mother-in-law—handcuffed and kneeling on the floor—were interrogated. The dogs lay dead nearby in pools of blood. Nothing in the house was found and no arrests were made.

If this had happened in a ghetto, perhaps no one would have taken note. However, Cheye Calvo is not just an upstanding citizen but the mayor of Berwyn Heights, a small, peaceful suburban town just one mile from the University of Maryland. Both Calvo and Tomsic have jobs working with the government, do much charity work, and are pillars of the community. Most everyone in town is outraged and appalled by this horrific incident.

A rally was held in protest of the police action and in support of the Calvo family. Most think they are unwitting and innocent victims of some drug ring using their address as a drop and someone else was intending to intercept the package before the Calvos even saw it. Some think they were set up.

So, are they guilty or innocent? I personally don't know but I can "prove" Cheye Calvo is guilty the FBI "Bruce Ivins" way, by picking and choosing which circumstantial evidence I will focus on and developing my theory to prove Calvo committed the crime of purposefully receiving illegal drugs.

The police must have had excellent reason to believe the Calvos were planning to receive the package, knew what was in it, and were involved in some sort of shady dealings or they would not have taken the huge risk of public outrage by carrying out a "no-knock" raid on the well-respected mayor of a peaceful, middle-class town.

The idea that the Calvos were just used as a drug drop location with someone else planning to intercept the package does not hold water. The police were surveilling the house and no one else was seen waiting for the package. Surely the police investigated the possibility that the delivery man could be in on the drug operation and they cleared him of any involvement. This leaves Calvo or Tomsic as the intended recipient.

Cheye Calvo was in Arizona (pure hearsay) around the time the package was sent. By not sending it to himself, but putting his wife's name on it, he distances himself from the package if ever he is questioned about it. The package is not his and was not sent to him.

Calvo planned to receive the package and then remove the contents to a secure location without the knowledge of his wife or mother-in-law. The package was delivered on a day Trinity Tomsic worked into the evening, allowing Calvo to come home and deal with package before Trinity's arrival.

He likely told his mother-in-law that he was expecting a package and, because it contained items for the yard, to just leave it on the porch. He had to have given this instruction to his mother-in-law because the porch had no overhang and it is unlikely she would leave a package addressed to her daughter out in the elements (heavy afternoon thunderstorms) if she thought it could be damaged.

Calvo would not want the package in the house before he could take care of it because his two black Labradors might rip open the package and damage the contents. When Calvo arrived home and carried the box in, he placed it on a table out of reach of the dogs.

Motive would be a question in this case. Although Calvo claims he is vehemently anti-drugs, because he and his wife have no children they may feel less restraint concerning recreational use of marijuana. However, 32 pounds is a lot of marijuana and worth $60,000 to 100,000 on the street, so one would suspect a financial motive. The Calvos recently sold one house and bought another with a good number of months passing where they had both houses in their possession (double mortgage payments) and the huge housing slump may have caused the sale of the first house to plummet $50,000-$100,000. This could cause quite a financial crisis for the Calvos in spite of their reasonably secure employment with the government.

Why would Cheye Calvo risk that security and lifelong benefits associated with working for the government just to make a quick buck? He may have thought his job as mayor eliminated most of the risk of such an undertaking. Should the police show up at his door, he would simply deny, as he did, that he knew anything about the package or what was in it, and who would question him? He is the mayor and well-loved in the town.

The chances of the police finding out about the package were statistically low (and both Calvo and his wife deal in statistics in their work), so the chances were high that the package would get through and their financial problems would be solved.

Have I convinced you that Cheye Calvo is guilty? Are you ready to see him arrested? I sure hope not. I have taken the few facts that exist and I have added conjecture and theory to weave them into a guilty scenario. While the facts may be thought-provoking and warrant further investigation and even a search warrant, this is the limit of what can be determined at this point in time.

All I actually know is:

1. A package containing 32 pounds of marijuana was addressed to Trinity Tomsic at the proper address.

2. Tomsic's mother told the delivery man to leave the package outside.

3. There is no overhang on the front porch.

4. Calvo brought the package into the house and left it unopened on the table.

5. Trinity Tomsic was not at home at the time of the delivery.

I also know but left out or misconstrued:

1. Neither Calvo nor Tomsic has a criminal record.

2. They both have good jobs.

3. They both donate a lot of their time to public service and charitable work.

4. They both have good reputations.

5. The townspeople love and support them.

6. They do not live ostentatiously.

So far, Cheye Calvo and Trinity Tomsic have not had their characters assassinated like Bruce Ivins. Until and unless an investigation finds additional evidence to prove the Calvos are truly involved in drugs, I can see nothing in their behavior or characters to condemn them (even if there are some curious points that make one do the profiling thing and analyze the possible scenarios).

Casey Anthony, however, is the exact opposite. Casey looks guilty as heck and I don't mind saying this. First of all, she is a liar. This is a fact, not a guess or conjecture. She is also a pathological liar. Fact. She didn't report her daughter missing for 31 days. Unbelievable fact. She has a car with a trunk that smells like a dead body. Fact. She is seen partying and smiling after he daughter went missing. Fact. She is not cooperating with the police. Fact.

I cannot assassinate this woman's character by saying she likely killed her child because she has accomplished that without my help. I think there is ample circumstantial evidence that points to Casey killing Caylee. Not just one or two or three interesting possibilities but a dozen or so facts that build a pretty solid case for guilt.

Bruce Ivins may be guilty of the anthrax attacks, but it won't be because he supposedly had a thing for a particular sorority or because some bizarre social worker with a criminal history claims he is homicidal, or because someone says he got porn at a secret mailbox. First of all, I have no idea of the validity of any of these claims, and, secondly, they do not prove a link to the anthrax attacks. If they were all true, then, yes, certainly, these verified facts would make me want to look more carefully at the man. According the government, we will have answers today.

A fair amount of circumstantial evidence equals probable cause for further investigation. An excessive amount of circumstantial evidence or extremely strong circumstantial evidence may constitute proof of guilt if altogether the evidence is convincing beyond a reasonable doubt. A sketchy amount of circumstantial evidence twisted and magnified is nothing but persecution.

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The Anthrax Suspect the FBI Refused to Investigate

by Pat Brown

I can vouch for Stephen Hatfill's claim that the FBI over-focused on him as the one and only possible Anthrax suspect. They downright refused to investigate the man I brought to them, in spite of the fact the evidence I presented was extremely interesting and concerning.

My suspect evolved following a FOX interview I gave in which I profiled the Anthrax suspect. I believe I said something along these lines:

1. He would be connected with Rutgers University in New Jersey or the area surrounding it.

2. He would be extremely obsessed with the media and politics.

3. He would have written many letters prior to the Anthrax attacks to editors of newspapers and politicians telling them answers to world problems and getting miffed he was not receiving proper responses to his "helpful" opinions.

4. He would ride the train between Trenton and Baltimore/Washington DC.

5. He would have some strong connection to America Media, where the first Anthrax letter hit.

A few days after this interview, I received the first of two letters, addressed in block handwriting and containing copies of bizarre letters to the media. Much of the content was how to solve crime and political problems.

The signature had been left off. The name of the sender was a fake, as was the return address in Tom's River, New Jersey. It wasn't until I ripped open the envelope (in my car) and then saw the label, I realized it could be the Anthrax guy. I battled with myself over going to the Emergency Room of the local hospital for Anthrax prevention medicine but I ended up being too embarrassed to go ask for it. (I crossed my fingers, instead.)

I survived the contents of the two letters and I was able to track down the writer. Here's what I found:

1. He was connected with Rutgers University in New Jersey. He was a Ph.D. in Biology working with soil.

2. He was extremely obsessed with the media, politics, and crime.

3. He had written many letters prior to the Anthrax attacks to editors of newspapers and politicians telling them answers to world problems and getting miffed he was not receiving proper responses to his "helpful" opinions.

4. He rode the train between Trenton and Baltimore/Washington DC where he had relatives. He did not drive.

5. He had a strong connection to America Media, where the first Anthrax letter hit. He was a regular subscriber to their Star tabloid magazine.

Furthermore, the man had many psychopath traits including pathological lying and grandiose ideation. He claimed previously to coworkers that he had worked covertly with the military to fight insurgents in Nicaragua and that after 9/11 the government had helicoptered him down to Washington, DC as part of a special undercover team of agents on a secret mission.

He also had a mentally unstable girlfriend over at Princeton, who used to be a student at Duke. She also was a Biology Ph.D. The Anthrax letters were dropped in a mailbox near Princeton University.

Am I saying my suspect is absolutely the Anthrax UNSUB? Of course not. But I will tell you that if you put his profile and links up against Stephen Hatfill, I would have sent 99 agents to check this guy out and let the other one see if he could find anything of note to justify a further look at Hatfill.

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